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reen Bay given how coach Mike McCarthy w

 
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СообщениеДобавлено: Пт Июн 29, 2018 6:53 am    Заголовок сообщения: reen Bay given how coach Mike McCarthy w Ответить с цитатой

If you had two sets of data, one being a team’s shooting percentage, and the other being a team’s ability to generate shot-attempts, which set would be better in terms of predicting future 5-on-5 goal-scoring ability? At first blush, one may guess the former. After all, it gives us the percentage of shots on ценз that result in a goal. The latter set of data only tells us how frequently shots are generated, and tells us little – if anything – about a team’s goal-scoring ability. But, that’s not the case. Plenty of work has been done on this topic, particularly at even-strength. The answer is clear: shot-attempt metrics and puck possession proxies like Corsi are much more predictive than shooting percentage, primarily because shooting percentage is swamped by random variance. It’s important to note that this also holds true for special teams. While many hockey analysts appear to obsess over raw conversion rates, the same above principle – that shot generation is far more predictive of future success (or failure) than shooting percentage – is vital in forecasting future success. Why? Because shooting percentage, even in a power-play situation where scoring chances are aplenty, is not a very repeatable skill. It’s easy to illustrate this by simply grabbing a team’s shooting percentage over the first half of the season, and finding how well it correlates to the team’s shooting percentage over the second half of the season. Taken from the years 2007 through 2011: I included the coefficient of determination (0.01) – or percent of variance explained – to illustrate the randomness in shooting percentage. As you can see, a team’s 5-on-4 shooting percentage through the first 41 games of the season does nothing in terms of telling us how well it will convert on shots over the next 41 games. Shot-attempt generation, we know, is a repeatable 5-on-5 skill. Does the same hold true for 5-on-4? Let’s grab the CorsiFor/60 for the same teams in the above sample, and see if their first-half numbers and second-half numbers show similarity. The graph and coefficient of determination here are much more convincing. A team’s ability to generate (or not generate) shots through the first 41 games will likely carry over to the next 41 games, which means this particular measurement has predictive value – far more than, say, shooting percentage. More than anything else, I think this topic is timely. If you poll members and fans of the National Hockey League as to who the league’s deadliest power-play is right now, I think you’ll get a stunningly similar response in the Pittsburgh Penguins. Now, that’s a decent choice – they have a ton of talented forwards, they have exhibited ability to generate shot-attempts with frequency in every game-state, and they have puck-movers on the back-end who can whip the puck through the neutral zone with tempo. All of that is fantastic However, the primary reason I think most would select the Pittsburgh Penguins right now is conveniently tied into the fact that they’ve converted on 31.6% of their power-plays through a 17.54% shooting percentage, second-highest in the league. But, if we are trying to forecast future outcomes, we know to move away from shooting percentages and gravitate towards shot generation. How do the Pittsburgh Penguins look in that aspect of the game? Power Play CorsiFor/60 Rank Team CorsiFor/60 1. Washington Capitals 127.7 2. San Jose Sharks 114.3 3. Arizona Coyotes 113.9 4. Philadelphia Flyers 106.2 5. Chicago Blackhawks 104.2 6. Toronto Maple Leafs 102.5 7. Winnipeg Jets 102.3 8. Detroit Red Wings 101.5 9. Boston Bruins 100.9 10. Ottawa Senators 96.8 11. New York Rangers 95.2 12. Pittsburgh Penguins 95.1 In reality, what we have in Pittsburgh is a good power-play with elite scoring talent. I’m highly skeptical, however, that it’s going to be the best unit by the end of the season, because it still pales in comparison to the units established in Washington (currently 28.8% conversion rate; 2nd) and San Jose (currently a 23.8% conversion rate; 4th), both historically and through the first leg of 2014-2015. Washington’s power-play has been performance art for years, and if nothing else, these early season numbers show the kind of incredible ability they have at blitzing opposing penalty kill units. Their scheme starts with a series of well-designed neutral zone rushes, and almost always features the likes of Nicklas Backstrom and Marcus Johansson on the right-side of the ice, with Alex Ovechkin waiting in his one-time wheelhouse for cross-ice passes. Backstrom and Johansson generally engage in sequences of back-and-forth passing to draw the defense deeper towards their own crease, which sets up two other options away from the Ovechkin primary at the blueline. If the defense pays too much respect to Ovechkin, Mike Green, John Carlson, and Matt Niskanen hammer away from the point. And if the defense pays equitable respect to the point shot and Ovechkin, Backstrom and Johansson needle their way deeper into the box of the penalty kill. If teams are looking at ways to improve their power play through modelling the attacking styles around the league, they could do worse than Mike Johnston’s Pittsburgh Penguins. But, right now, the kings of 5-on-4 still reside in the D.C. area. And, the king of predictive utility for power-play performance is still embedded in shot attempts. Sam Darnold Jersey . "Thank you for the warm welcome," Beckham said on an 80-degree February morning. In this case, it was soccer weather. The sport moved a step closer to returning to South Florida on Wednesday, when Beckham confirmed he has exercised his option to purchase a Major League Soccer expansion franchise in Miami. Sam Darnold Jets Jersey . However, Therrien added that Galchenyuks status for next Wednesdays game against the Detroit Red Wings is questionable. Galchenyuk has been out since Jan. 6 with a broken right hand. http://www.shopnyjets.us/trenton-cannon-jersey/. He was still a kid, going into his senior year of high school. Thursday, the point guard stood in front of a couple dozen members of the media and spoke with poise about how much hed grown since then, and how hes ready for the next level. Joe Namath Jets Jersey . - Jerome Verrier scored the winner 8:24 into overtime and Louis-Phillip Guindon stopped 46 shots as the Drummondville Voltigeurs edged the host Val-dOr Foreurs 4-3 on Friday in Quebec Major Junior Hockey League playoff action. Trenton Cannon Jersey . - San Diego Padres centre fielder Cameron Maybin is going to be out two to three months after rupturing his left biceps tendon during a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday.GREEN BAY, Wis. -- After a nice showing by the starters, the Packers appear as if they will need to move forward this season without a key defensive lineman. Nose tackle B.J. Raji left Green Bays 31-21 win Friday night over Oakland in the first quarter with an arm injury, and later stayed on the sideline for a while with a sleeve protecting his right arm. Coach Mike McCarthy said after the game that Raji was optimistic, although more tests were needed. Raji tore his biceps and will miss the 2014 season, ESPN.ценз and NFL.ценз reported Saturday. The Packers, who were off Saturday, return to practice Sunday, when McCarthy will likely address whats next up front. Raji moved inside from end this preseason, playing mainly in the base 3-4 scheme. The Packers also have second-year player Josh Boyd at tackle, while undrafted rookie free agent Mike Pennel has impressed at camp. Letroy Guion was signed in the off-season from the Vikings but hasnt practiced yet because of a hamstring injury. The first-string defence looked good even with Raji watching. Linebacker A.J. Hawk hopes the performance overall bodes well for the regular season opener Sept. 4 against the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. "Right now we feel good. That doesnt mean anything if we wont take it to the regular season, obviously," Hawk said. The preseason wraps up Thursday night with a game against Kansas City. It wasnt a perfect night for the starters against the Raiders given the 40-yard touchdown run by Oaklands Maurice Jones-Drew. A few missed tackles -- a problem last season -- aided Jones-Drew. But the defence bounced back with four straight three-and-outs. When the Raiders finally got back into Packers territory late in the second quarter, NNick Perry sacked Matt Schaub and forced a fumble recovered by Mike Neal.dddddddddddd Thats another promising development for Green Bay given how coach Mike McCarthy was looking for big plays. "I think our No. 1 defence ... I think we dominated the line of scrimmage. Three-and-outs speak for themselves," he said. Julius Peppers, who joined the Packers in the off-season as a free agent from the NFC North rival Chicago Bears, had a sack. The veteran with 118 1/2 career sacks wasnt that impressed with his preseason takedown. "It was exciting," Peppers said with a hint of sarcasm, adding hes getting comfortable with the new scheme. "Im just trying to knock off a little rust before we get to these real games." Perry and Neal are returning rushers in the front seven. Clay Matthews is back, too, seemingly healthy against following a thumb injury last season. Undrafted rookie free agent Jayrone Elliott followed up his three-sack game last week with a sack and pass deflection against Oakland. With the first cuts approaching, Elliott is trying to make the roster decisions at outside linebacker difficult. There were good signs at safety, another problem area last season. Converted cornerback Micah Hyde bounced back from having missed one of the tackles on Jones-Drews touchdown run with a solid game, including a pass deflection and fumble recovery. Morgan Burnett lunged in the open field to tip away a pass. Sean Richardson forced a fumble. "Youve got to be happy with the way the defence bounced back," Hyde said. "So you know it was tough that first drive, but after that I felt like we got some momentum and we tried to move in the right direction." Cheap NFL Black Jerseys Wholesale NFL Jerseys Wholesale NFL Hoodies Cheap NFL Autographed Jerseys Jerseys From China Wholesale Jerseys 2020 Wholesale Jerseys Free Shipping ' ' '
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СообщениеДобавлено: Чт Июл 19, 2018 10:36 am    Заголовок сообщения: chanyuan Ответить с цитатой

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